MetaculR_brier {MetaculR} | R Documentation |
Calculate Brier statistics on MetaculR_questions object
Description
Calculate Brier statistics on MetaculR_questions object
Usage
MetaculR_brier(MetaculR_questions, me = TRUE, thresholds = seq(0, 1, 0.1))
Arguments
MetaculR_questions |
A MetaculR_questions object |
me |
Show my scores alongside Metaculus scores |
thresholds |
Thresholds to bin questions |
Value
A list of Brier statistics for you and Metaculus.
brier_me , brier_Metaculus , brier_community |
|
baseline.tf |
Logical indicator of whether climatology was provided. |
bs |
Brier score |
bs.baseline |
Brier Score for climatology |
ss |
Skill score |
bs.reliability |
Reliability portion of Brier score. |
bs.resolution |
Resolution component of Brier score. |
bs.uncert |
Uncertainty component of Brier score. |
y.i |
Forecast bins – described as the center value of the bins. |
obar.i |
Observation bins – described as the center value of the bins. |
prob.y |
Proportion of time using each forecast. |
obar |
Forecast based on climatology or average sample observations. |
thresholds |
The thresholds for the forecast bins. |
check |
Reliability - resolution + uncertainty should equal brier score. |
Other |
|
ss_me_Metaculus , ss_me_community , ss_Metaculus_community |
Skill score, me vs. Metaculus, etc. |
count_questions |
Number of total questions included. |
brier_df: Used for plotting Brier score statistics |
|
ID |
Predictor. |
name |
Name of value, see above. |
value |
Value. |
brier_bins_df: Used for plotting histogram and calibration plots. |
|
ID |
Predictor. |
centers |
y.i, see above. |
freqs |
prob.y, see above. |
obars |
obar.i, see above. |
ideal |
Ideal calibration where centers equals obars. |
ci_low |
Low end of 95% confidence interval for obar.i. |
ci_high |
High end of 95% confidence interval for obar.i. |
Examples
## Not run:
brier_me <-
MetaculR_brier(
questions_myPredictions_resolved)
## End(Not run)