PBSSMLinSDEFixed {simStateSpace}R Documentation

Parametric Bootstrap for the Linear Stochastic Differential Equation Model using a State Space Model Parameterization (Fixed Parameters)

Description

This function simulates data from a linear stochastic differential equation model using a state-space model parameterization and fits the model using the dynr package. The process is repeated R times. It assumes that the parameters remain constant across individuals and over time. At the moment, the function only supports type = 0.

Usage

PBSSMLinSDEFixed(
  R,
  path,
  prefix,
  n,
  time,
  delta_t = 0.1,
  mu0,
  sigma0_l,
  iota,
  phi,
  sigma_l,
  nu,
  lambda,
  theta_l,
  type = 0,
  x = NULL,
  gamma = NULL,
  kappa = NULL,
  mu0_fixed = FALSE,
  sigma0_fixed = FALSE,
  alpha_level = 0.05,
  optimization_flag = TRUE,
  hessian_flag = FALSE,
  verbose = FALSE,
  weight_flag = FALSE,
  debug_flag = FALSE,
  perturb_flag = FALSE,
  xtol_rel = 1e-07,
  stopval = -9999,
  ftol_rel = -1,
  ftol_abs = -1,
  maxeval = as.integer(-1),
  maxtime = -1,
  ncores = NULL,
  seed = NULL
)

Arguments

R

Positive integer. Number of bootstrap samples.

path

Path to a directory to store bootstrap samples and estimates.

prefix

Character string. Prefix used for the file names for the bootstrap samples and estimates.

n

Positive integer. Number of individuals.

time

Positive integer. Number of time points.

delta_t

Numeric. Time interval (\Delta_t).

mu0

Numeric vector. Mean of initial latent variable values (\boldsymbol{\mu}_{\boldsymbol{\eta} \mid 0}).

sigma0_l

Numeric matrix. Cholesky factorization (t(chol(sigma0))) of the covariance matrix of initial latent variable values (\boldsymbol{\Sigma}_{\boldsymbol{\eta} \mid 0}).

iota

Numeric vector. An unobserved term that is constant over time (\boldsymbol{\iota}).

phi

Numeric matrix. The drift matrix which represents the rate of change of the solution in the absence of any random fluctuations (\boldsymbol{\Phi}).

sigma_l

Numeric matrix. Cholesky factorization (t(chol(sigma))) of the covariance matrix of volatility or randomness in the process (\boldsymbol{\Sigma}).

nu

Numeric vector. Vector of intercept values for the measurement model (\boldsymbol{\nu}).

lambda

Numeric matrix. Factor loading matrix linking the latent variables to the observed variables (\boldsymbol{\Lambda}).

theta_l

Numeric matrix. Cholesky factorization (t(chol(theta))) of the covariance matrix of the measurement error (\boldsymbol{\Theta}).

type

Integer. State space model type. See Details for more information.

x

List. Each element of the list is a matrix of covariates for each individual i in n. The number of columns in each matrix should be equal to time.

gamma

Numeric matrix. Matrix linking the covariates to the latent variables at current time point (\boldsymbol{\Gamma}).

kappa

Numeric matrix. Matrix linking the covariates to the observed variables at current time point (\boldsymbol{\kappa}).

mu0_fixed

Logical. If mu0_fixed = TRUE, fix the initial mean vector to mu0. If mu0_fixed = FALSE, mu0 is estimated.

sigma0_fixed

Logical. If sigma0_fixed = TRUE, fix the initial covariance matrix to tcrossprod(sigma0_l). If sigma0_fixed = FALSE, sigma0 is estimated.

alpha_level

Numeric vector. Significance level \alpha.

optimization_flag

a flag (TRUE/FALSE) indicating whether optimization is to be done.

hessian_flag

a flag (TRUE/FALSE) indicating whether the Hessian matrix is to be calculated.

verbose

a flag (TRUE/FALSE) indicating whether more detailed intermediate output during the estimation process should be printed

weight_flag

a flag (TRUE/FALSE) indicating whether the negative log likelihood function should be weighted by the length of the time series for each individual

debug_flag

a flag (TRUE/FALSE) indicating whether users want additional dynr output that can be used for diagnostic purposes

perturb_flag

a flag (TRUE/FLASE) indicating whether to perturb the latent states during estimation. Only useful for ensemble forecasting.

xtol_rel

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

stopval

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

ftol_rel

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

ftol_abs

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

maxeval

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

maxtime

Stopping criteria option for parameter optimization. See dynr::dynr.model() for more details.

ncores

Positive integer. Number of cores to use. If ncores = NULL, use a single core. Consider using multiple cores when number of bootstrap samples R is a large value.

seed

Random seed.

Details

Type 0

The measurement model is given by

\mathbf{y}_{i, t} = \boldsymbol{\nu} + \boldsymbol{\Lambda} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t}, \quad \mathrm{with} \quad \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} \sim \mathcal{N} \left( \mathbf{0}, \boldsymbol{\Theta} \right)

where \mathbf{y}_{i, t}, \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t}, and \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} are random variables and \boldsymbol{\nu}, \boldsymbol{\Lambda}, and \boldsymbol{\Theta} are model parameters. \mathbf{y}_{i, t} represents a vector of observed random variables, \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} a vector of latent random variables, and \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} a vector of random measurement errors, at time t and individual i. \boldsymbol{\nu} denotes a vector of intercepts, \boldsymbol{\Lambda} a matrix of factor loadings, and \boldsymbol{\Theta} the covariance matrix of \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}.

An alternative representation of the measurement error is given by

\boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} = \boldsymbol{\Theta}^{\frac{1}{2}} \mathbf{z}_{i, t}, \quad \mathrm{with} \quad \mathbf{z}_{i, t} \sim \mathcal{N} \left( \mathbf{0}, \mathbf{I} \right)

where \mathbf{z}_{i, t} is a vector of independent standard normal random variables and \left( \boldsymbol{\Theta}^{\frac{1}{2}} \right) \left( \boldsymbol{\Theta}^{\frac{1}{2}} \right)^{\prime} = \boldsymbol{\Theta} .

The dynamic structure is given by

\mathrm{d} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} = \left( \boldsymbol{\iota} + \boldsymbol{\Phi} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} \right) \mathrm{d}t + \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{\frac{1}{2}} \mathrm{d} \mathbf{W}_{i, t}

where \boldsymbol{\iota} is a term which is unobserved and constant over time, \boldsymbol{\Phi} is the drift matrix which represents the rate of change of the solution in the absence of any random fluctuations, \boldsymbol{\Sigma} is the matrix of volatility or randomness in the process, and \mathrm{d}\boldsymbol{W} is a Wiener process or Brownian motion, which represents random fluctuations.

Type 1

The measurement model is given by

\mathbf{y}_{i, t} = \boldsymbol{\nu} + \boldsymbol{\Lambda} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t}, \quad \mathrm{with} \quad \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} \sim \mathcal{N} \left( \mathbf{0}, \boldsymbol{\Theta} \right) .

The dynamic structure is given by

\mathrm{d} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} = \left( \boldsymbol{\iota} + \boldsymbol{\Phi} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} \right) \mathrm{d}t + \boldsymbol{\Gamma} \mathbf{x}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{\frac{1}{2}} \mathrm{d} \mathbf{W}_{i, t}

where \mathbf{x}_{i, t} represents a vector of covariates at time t and individual i, and \boldsymbol{\Gamma} the coefficient matrix linking the covariates to the latent variables.

Type 2

The measurement model is given by

\mathbf{y}_{i, t} = \boldsymbol{\nu} + \boldsymbol{\Lambda} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\kappa} \mathbf{x}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t}, \quad \mathrm{with} \quad \boldsymbol{\varepsilon}_{i, t} \sim \mathcal{N} \left( \mathbf{0}, \boldsymbol{\Theta} \right)

where \boldsymbol{\kappa} represents the coefficient matrix linking the covariates to the observed variables.

The dynamic structure is given by

\mathrm{d} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} = \left( \boldsymbol{\iota} + \boldsymbol{\Phi} \boldsymbol{\eta}_{i, t} \right) \mathrm{d}t + \boldsymbol{\Gamma} \mathbf{x}_{i, t} + \boldsymbol{\Sigma}^{\frac{1}{2}} \mathrm{d} \mathbf{W}_{i, t} .

State Space Parameterization

The state space parameters as a function of the linear stochastic differential equation model parameters are given by

\boldsymbol{\beta}_{\Delta t_{{l_{i}}}} = \exp{ \left( \Delta t \boldsymbol{\Phi} \right) }

\boldsymbol{\alpha}_{\Delta t_{{l_{i}}}} = \boldsymbol{\Phi}^{-1} \left( \boldsymbol{\beta} - \mathbf{I}_{p} \right) \boldsymbol{\iota}

\mathrm{vec} \left( \boldsymbol{\Psi}_{\Delta t_{{l_{i}}}} \right) = \left[ \left( \boldsymbol{\Phi} \otimes \mathbf{I}_{p} \right) + \left( \mathbf{I}_{p} \otimes \boldsymbol{\Phi} \right) \right] \left[ \exp \left( \left[ \left( \boldsymbol{\Phi} \otimes \mathbf{I}_{p} \right) + \left( \mathbf{I}_{p} \otimes \boldsymbol{\Phi} \right) \right] \Delta t \right) - \mathbf{I}_{p \times p} \right] \mathrm{vec} \left( \boldsymbol{\Sigma} \right)

where p is the number of latent variables and \Delta t is the time interval.

Value

Returns an object of class statespacepb which is a list with the following elements:

call

Function call.

args

Function arguments.

thetahatstar

Sampling distribution of \boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}}.

vcov

Sampling variance-covariance matrix of \boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}}.

est

Vector of estimated \boldsymbol{\hat{\theta}}.

fun

Function used ("PBSSMLinSDEFixed").

Author(s)

Ivan Jacob Agaloos Pesigan

References

Chow, S.-M., Ho, M. R., Hamaker, E. L., & Dolan, C. V. (2010). Equivalence and differences between structural equation modeling and state-space modeling techniques. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 17(2), 303–332. doi:10.1080/10705511003661553

Chow, S.-M., Losardo, D., Park, J., & Molenaar, P. C. M. (2023). Continuous-time dynamic models: Connections to structural equation models and other discrete-time models. In R. H. Hoyle (Ed.), Handbook of structural equation modeling (2nd ed.). The Guilford Press.

Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/cbo9781107049994

See Also

Other Simulation of State Space Models Data Functions: LinSDE2SSM(), PBSSMFixed(), PBSSMOUFixed(), PBSSMVARFixed(), SimBetaN(), SimPhiN(), SimSSMFixed(), SimSSMIVary(), SimSSMLinGrowth(), SimSSMLinGrowthIVary(), SimSSMLinSDEFixed(), SimSSMLinSDEIVary(), SimSSMOUFixed(), SimSSMOUIVary(), SimSSMVARFixed(), SimSSMVARIVary(), TestPhi(), TestStability(), TestStationarity()

Examples

## Not run: 
# prepare parameters
## number of individuals
n <- 5
## time points
time <- 50
delta_t <- 0.10
## dynamic structure
p <- 2
mu0 <- c(-3.0, 1.5)
sigma0 <- 0.001 * diag(p)
sigma0_l <- t(chol(sigma0))
iota <- c(0.317, 0.230)
phi <- matrix(
  data = c(
    -0.10,
    0.05,
    0.05,
    -0.10
  ),
  nrow = p
)
sigma <- matrix(
  data = c(
    2.79,
    0.06,
    0.06,
    3.27
  ),
  nrow = p
)
sigma_l <- t(chol(sigma))
## measurement model
k <- 2
nu <- rep(x = 0, times = k)
lambda <- diag(k)
theta <- 0.001 * diag(k)
theta_l <- t(chol(theta))

pb <- PBSSMLinSDEFixed(
  R = 1000L,
  path = getwd(),
  prefix = "lse",
  n = n,
  time = time,
  delta_t = delta_t,
  mu0 = mu0,
  sigma0_l = sigma0_l,
  iota = iota,
  phi = phi,
  sigma_l = sigma_l,
  nu = nu,
  lambda = lambda,
  theta_l = theta_l,
  type = 0,
  ncores = parallel::detectCores() - 1,
  seed = 42
)
print(pb)
summary(pb)
confint(pb)
vcov(pb)
coef(pb)
print(pb, type = "bc") # bias-corrected
summary(pb, type = "bc")
confint(pb, type = "bc")

## End(Not run)


[Package simStateSpace version 1.2.7 Index]