%global __brp_check_rpaths %{nil} %global packname braggR %global packver 0.1.1 %global rlibdir /usr/local/lib/R/library Name: R-CRAN-%{packname} Version: 0.1.1 Release: 1%{?dist}%{?buildtag} Summary: Calculate the Revealed Aggregator of Probability Predictions License: GPL-2 URL: https://cran.r-project.org/package=%{packname} Source0: %{url}&version=%{packver}#/%{packname}_%{packver}.tar.gz BuildRequires: R-devel Requires: R-core BuildRequires: R-CRAN-Rcpp Requires: R-CRAN-Rcpp %description Forecasters predicting the chances of a future event may disagree due to differing evidence or noise. To harness the collective evidence of the crowd, Ville Satopää (2021) "Regularized Aggregation of One-off Probability Predictions" proposes a Bayesian aggregator that is regularized by analyzing the forecasters' disagreement and ascribing over-dispersion to noise. This aggregator requires no user intervention and can be computed efficiently even for a large numbers of predictions. The author evaluates the aggregator on subjective probability predictions collected during a four-year forecasting tournament sponsored by the US intelligence community. The aggregator improves the accuracy of simple averaging by around 20%% and other state-of-the-art aggregators by 10-25%%. The advantage stems almost exclusively from improved calibration. This aggregator -- know as "the revealed aggregator" -- inputs a) forecasters' probability predictions (p) of a future binary event and b) the forecasters' common prior (p0) of the future event. In this R-package, the function sample_aggregator(p,p0,...) allows the user to calculate the revealed aggregator. Its use is illustrated with a simple example. %prep %setup -q -c -n %{packname} # fix end of executable files find -type f -executable -exec grep -Iq . {} \; -exec sed -i -e '$a\' {} \; # prevent binary stripping [ -d %{packname}/src ] && find %{packname}/src -type f -exec \ sed -i 's@/usr/bin/strip@/usr/bin/true@g' {} \; || true # don't allow local prefix in executable scripts find -type f -executable -exec sed -Ei 's@#!( )*/usr/local/bin@#!/usr/bin@g' {} \; %build %install mkdir -p %{buildroot}%{rlibdir} %{_bindir}/R CMD INSTALL -l %{buildroot}%{rlibdir} %{packname} test -d %{packname}/src && (cd %{packname}/src; rm -f *.o *.so) rm -f %{buildroot}%{rlibdir}/R.css # remove buildroot from installed files find %{buildroot}%{rlibdir} -type f -exec sed -i "s@%{buildroot}@@g" {} \; %files %{rlibdir}/%{packname}